Monday, August 17, 2009

Chase Watch 2009: Kyle Busch is getting a wee bit nervous

With only three races left until the Chase, things are tightening up! Here, we take a look at who's up, who's down, who's surging and who's falling flat after Michigan.

Current standings: Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon (+1), Jimmie Johnson (-1), Carl Edwards (+2), Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch (-2), Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth (+1), Mark Martin (-1).

Movin' on up: Jeff Gordon's second-place finish put him into second place, for what that's worth; points will be reset in just three weeks anyway. Carl Edwards cruised into fourth place, still without a win, and Matt Kenseth put one name between himself and the cut line. Big mover this week: Dale Earnhardt Jr., who jumped four spots, all the way to ... 21st.

Bottoming out: Mark Martin's gamble didn't pay off; he fell from 8th during the race to 12th by the end of it, with only 17 points separating him from the cut line. Further up the leaderboard, Kurt Busch dropped out of fourth place for the first time in months, falling behind Edwards and Hamlin. Big dropper this week: Kyle Busch. We'll talk about him in a second.

On the bubble: Brian Vickers' victory put him right on Mark Martin's bumper, statistically speaking, and all of a sudden he's got a great chance to make the Chase. Clint Bowyer isn't all that far back either, and with the way that Bristol can take cars out of the hunt, he's sitting well also. But pity poor Kyle Busch, who fell two spots to 15th and 70 points outside of the Chase. He's going to have to not only wallop the field but hope that Bowyer, Vickers and Martin also finish poorly.

Outlook: Vickers is all of a sudden looking like a serious Chase contender, and Martin is all of a sudden looking very old. Ironically, if he could get in, Martin would be ranked #1, but he's running the risk of being the prettiest girl left at home without a date. And Busch has got to step it up -- but then, it seems we've been saying that for several weeks now.

So who's your pick to reach the Chase? Have your say!

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