Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Junior, Busch among Cup drivers winning "Loopies"

There are a few more awards to be handed out. So don't return those tuxes just yet. It's time for the second annual Loopie Awards, a ceremony commemorating the best -- and worst -- Loop Data performances of the 2008 season.

The envelopes please ...

The "Grass Is Always Greener" Award: Congrats to Dale Earnhardt Jr. Get it? Greener? Brilliant. Switching teams and colors breathed new life into Earnhardt, the clear winner of this award. With new team Hendrick Motorsports this season, Earnhardt nabbed his first win since 2006, made the Chase, and improved his Driver Rating by 5.8 points -- from 93.2 in 2007 to 99.0 this year.

The "Hey Conspiracy Theorists, Quiet Down" Award: Congrats to Dale Earnhardt Jr. again. Or perhaps this should go to Dale Earnhardt Inc. owner Teresa Earnhardt, which would make her the first NASCAR owner to win a coveted Loopie. Remember at the end of 2007, when conspiracy theorists assumed DEI intentionally gave Earnhardt shoddy engines? They had the stats to back it up: Earnhardt's "Closer" number -- the number of positions gained or lost in the final 10 percent of races -- was a dead-last -104. That poor figure was in large part due to engine failure in the closing laps. Well, the theory is ludicrous. This year, Earnhardt's Closer number was -103. Only one driver was worse than him -- Juan Montoya at -121.

The "I Didn't See That Coming" Award: This one is given to the driver who had a surprisingly bad year. (Name another award ceremony where the nominees don't always want to win.) This award goes to Kurt Busch. Busch had the largest drop in Driver Rating from 2007 -- 25.9 points. In '07, Busch had a strong Driver Rating of 99.7. This season, it plummeted to 73.8.

The "I Didn't See That Coming, But In A Good Way" Award: This one is given to the most improved driver -- and it's the least surprising winner in the bunch. The suspense killer goes to David Ragan, of course. Toward the end of the season, Tony Stewart went so far as recommending Ragan for driver of the year. Ragan certainly did impress. Finishing the season in 13th place, Ragan had by far the largest jump in Driver Rating. In 2007, Ragan had a Driver Rating of 56.1. This season, he earned an 81.8, an increase of 25.7 points. The second largest improvement was Roush Fenway Racing teammate Greg Biffle with a 17.0 point jump. He went from a 76.4 in '07 to a 93.4 this season.

The "Coasting to the Finish" Award: Pit strategy played a hugely important role in a number of races this year -- and maybe more this season than any other in recent memory. The winner of this award is Carl Edwards, who stretched his fuel mileage to capture two of his three Chase victories. Loop Data shows many things, and one of them is lap speed of every car. In his win at Homestead, Edwards ran his final lap at 144.809 mph. The average speed of the field was 156.351 mph -- a difference of 11.542 mph. At Texas, his final lap speed was 156.586 mph. The average speed of the field was 165.825 mph -- a difference of 9.240 mph. But since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, the coast king is Tony Stewart. In his Kansas win in 2006, Stewart's final lap speed was 125.323 mph. The average speed of the field that lap was 155.365 mph, a difference of 30.042 mph. Since there were no Loopies back then, here's a Lifetime Achievement Award for Tony.

The "Tony Romo" Award: This one goes to the driver whose playoff performance was much, much worse than his regular season performance. Not to kick Kyle Busch when he's down, but the statistics are too lopsided to ignore. In the first 26 races, Busch had eight wins, an Average Running Position of 9.0 and a Driver Rating of 112.0. During the Chase, Busch had no wins, an Average Running Position of 17.6 and a Driver Rating of 83.4.

The "Number Two in the Standings, But Number One In Our Hearts ... And Fastest Laps Run" Award: Carl Edwards picks up another award. This one's a nod to his outstanding season that came up just short. Edwards ranked first in seven Loop Data categories, including Fastest Laps Run where he crushed the competition. Edwards ran the fastest lap on 1,091 of the 8,991 total green flag laps this season (12.1 percent). Second-most was Jimmie Johnson with 937, a difference of 154 laps -- or six laps short of an entire Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway.

The "Mr. September, October and Most of November" Award: This goes to our three-time Sprint Cup champion, Jimmie Johnson. What he does in the Chase, under playoff pressure, is simply astounding. His stats in the last three Chases:

Jimmie Johnson
Chase for the Sprint Cup ('06-'08)

Year Wins T5 T10 Avg. Fin. Avg. Running Pos. %Fastest Laps Run Laps Top 15% %Laps Led Driver Rating
2006 1 5 6 10.8 9.5 12.2% 85.8% 15.0% 108.8
2007 4 6 8 5.0 9.9 11.5% 82.6% 10.1% 114.1
2008 3 6 8 5.7 8.6 13.9% 81.3% 29.7% 116.2

Victory, Chase good for Junior, but good enough?

Expectation is the word that comes to mind for Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s 2008 season. His move from family-owned Dale Earnhardt Inc. to Hendrick Motorsports in the offseason brought a heavy load with it.


Dale Earnhardt Jr. snapped a 76-race winless streak at Michigan.Junior was expected to win races after failing to do so in 2007. He was even projected by some to contend for the championship after finishing 16th or worse in the standings in two of the last three seasons. He certainly didn't extinguish those expectations when he won the Budweiser Shootout and his Gatorade Duel race at Daytona. But the season brought his team back down to earth.

Earnhardt started the year as a model of consistency, scoring 11 top-10 finishes in the first 15 races. The culmination of that streak was his victory at Michigan, snapping the 76-race winless drought. Yet another streak followed: Nine finishes outside the top 10 in the next 10 races. Still, it was good enough to make the Chase with ease.

Two weeks into the Chase, Junior's title contention went sour with a four-week span of mediocrity that dropped him from fourth in points to barely hanging on to the top 10. He rebounded with a second-place finish at Martinsville, but a 20th-place finish at Texas and a 41st at Homestead sealed his fate: He fell to 12th in the standings, his worst position since the second week of the season.

Did Earnhardt meet expectations? By most accounts, no. His team thrived early in races, only to fade in the closing laps. Each race became a microcosm of the season. But he did return to Victory Lane and the Chase, which could only set the bar higher for 2009.

Best Race


LifeLock 400 at Michigan International Speedway -- Sure, Junior won the race. But the race also proved that he could still communicate well with crew chief Tony Eury Jr., that he trusted his cousin's judgment from the pit box, and that he can still win races after a 76-race winless streak. Junior stayed out for the final 55 laps, enduring a green-white-checkered finish before having to be pushed to Victory Lane when his car ran out of fuel crossing the line. Was it Junior's best race? That could easily be debated. But if the No. 88 team is to go on to win more races in the future, it can point to an extended day in Michigan that reminded the team it can still do the job.

Turn for the Worse


Camping World RV 400 at Dover International Speedway -- Race 2 of the Chase began with Earnhardt sitting fourth in points, 50 behind leader Jimmie Johnson. But a 24th-place finish at Dover, combined with top-five finishes for Johnson, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle, dropped Junior all the way to ninth in points in just one race, 129 back of Edwards in the lead. Earnhardt never recovered. His next three races ended with finishes of 13th, 28th and 36th, ultimately dropping him to 10th in points and out of title contention.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2008 Season Statistics

Race Start Finish Laps Status Led Rank

Daytona 3 9 200/200 Running 12 8
Fontana 15 40 203/250 Running 0 23
Las Vegas 8 2 267/267 Running 17 10
Atlanta 2 3 325/325 Running 62 6
Bristol 15 5 506/506 Running 0 5
Martinsville 22 6 500/500 Running 146 4
Texas 1 12 338/339 Running 31 4
Phoenix 13 7 312/312 Running 87 3
Talladega 9 10 188/188 Running 46 3
Richmond 22 15 410/410 Running 15 3
Darlington 2 4 367/367 Running 35 3
Charlotte 6 5 400/400 Running 76 3
Dover 25 35 387/400 Running 0 3
Pocono 7 4 200/200 Running 0 3
Michigan 3 1 203/203 Running 14 3
Sonoma 15 12 112/112 Running 0 3
New Hampshire 5 24 284/284 Running 29 3
Daytona 3 8 162/162 Running 51 2
Chicagoland 2 16 267/267 Running 0 2
Indianapolis 11 12 160/160 Running 8 2
Pocono 12 12 200/200 Running 1 2
Watkins Glen 2 22 90/90 Running 33 4
Michigan 4 23 199/200 Running 43 4
Bristol 40 18 498/500 Running 0 3
Fontana 18 11 250/250 Running 0 4
Richmond 4 4 400/400 Running 90 4
New Hampshire 4 5 300/300 Running 79 4
Dover 10 24 397/400 Running 0 9
Kansas 11 13 267/267 Running 0 8
Talladega 15 28 173/190 Crash 19 10
Charlotte 10 36 289/334 Running 0 10
Martinsville 10 2 504/504 Running 0 9
Atlanta 9 11 325/325 Running 1 10
Texas 5 20 332/334 Running 1 11
Phoenix 5 6 313/313 Running 0 10
Homestead 22 41 246/267 Wheel Bearing 0 12
Totals 10.3 14.1 98.6% 896 12