Continuing our "please-oh-please-oh-please" series on the final races of the Chase, we focus on how Mark Martin (or someone else) could take the Cup away from Jimmie Johnson. The last couple weeks, we've talked about how Johnson could lose, so let's be more positive today, shall we?
With two races left, Jimmie Johnson's closest pursuers are Martin (73 points back), Jeff Gordon (112 points back), Kurt Busch (171 points back) and Tony Stewart (178 points back). So let's break down how this could go, using this points system as a guide.
If Johnson averages a fourth-place finish, the Chase is over. Nobody can catch him.
If Johnson averages a fifth-place finish, Martin would have to win both races and lead the most laps in both. Nobody else can catch him.
If Johnson averages a 10th-place finish, Martin would have to finish first in one race and second in the other, but wouldn't need to lead either in laps. Jeff Gordon would have to win both races and lead the most laps in both. Busch and Stewart couldn't win.
If Johnson averages a 15th-place finish, Martin would have to average a fifth-place finish. Gordon would have to win both, but he wouldn't have to lead the most in both. Busch and Stewart still couldn't win.
If Johnson averages a 22nd-place finish -- wins one race and crashes out on lap 1 of the other, a highly unlikely event -- Martin would have to average a 10th-place finish. Gordon would have to average a fifth-place finish. Busch would have to win both races; Stewart would have to win both races and lead the most laps in both.
So there you go -- chances aplenty! Phoenix thus becomes the most important race of the season so far. If Martin can cut into Johnson's lead, even by a little, it'll completely change the complexion of the Chase. We shall see.
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