Chase Watch 2009: Don't go popping those corks just yet

With only two races left in the 2009 season, we're just about through -- and suddenly, things aren't quite so cut-and-dried after all. Whee-doggie!

Standings (movement): Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch (+2), Tony Stewart, Juan Pablo Montoya (-2), Greg Biffle, Denny Hamlin (+3), Ryan Newman (-1), Kasey Kahne (-1), Carl Edwards (-1), Brian Vickers.

Who's up: Everybody but the 48! In the finest example of NASCAR schadenfreude in decades, Jimmie Johnson wrecked on lap 3, and the fans cheered. To be fair, I don't believe the fans were cheering Johnson's wreck in and of itself; it was more the idea of drama coming back to the Chase after all. Oh, and Denny Hamlin bounced back up in the standings again, as did Kurt Busch; winning'll do that for ya.

Who's down: Johnson, of course. He lost more than 100 points off his lead, and now holds only a 73-point lead over Mark Martin. How big is that final-lap wreck at Talladega now? Also in a spot of trouble: Juan Pablo Montoya, who lost two spots because of his wreck, and Carl Edwards, who dropped out of the Vegas-bound top 10 in the same wreck. Oh, and Gordon absolutely fumbled a golden opportunity to make up huge points; when he looks back on his 2009, he'll see this race as one of the glaring missed chances.

Outlook: It's still Johnson's Cup to lose; he's absolutely dominant at Phoenix. But Martin is now officially back in the mix. We'll run through scenarios later this week, but if, hypothetically speaking, Martin finished in the top 3 at Phoenix and Johnson finished around the tenth position, the lead would only be about 30 points -- the kind of lead that can vanish in a single lap.

All right, your turn. What's your take on the Chase as it now stands? Go!